400 thousand Ruzzkies operating in Ukraine
But still not enough to conquer the fighting state
As the Gaza Strip and Hamas / Israel war is the primary focus of international media, the Russian war on Ukraine continues. According to Ukrainian officials, there are around 400 thousand Russian troops occupying and operating in Ukraine as of now.
There are enough forces for concrete operations on the concrete parts of the frontline. Yes, they do have enough for that. The occupiers have a group of over 400,000 soldiers in Ukraine on the temporarily occupied territories. Naturally, it is quite a significant number of personnel. Despite the fact that we are dealing with an army that in many ways cannot be called a contemporary, there are large quantities of arms, in particular armored vehicles and aviation being uncovered reactivated, and sent to the frontlines.
That intel came right after Ukraine's General Staff announced on October 23rd that Russia launched an attack across the entire contact line in the regions we’ve heard about since the early stages of the war, at least in the Donetsk region:
The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on Oct. 23 that Russian forces launched attacks on multiple sectors of the eastern front, including near Avdiivka, Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, and Marinka.
The Ukrainian assessment of the Russian losses in this operation looks like this:
Ukrainian officials on Sunday claimed Russia had lost over 6,000 soldiers in a week, as well as over 400 armored vehicles and tanks. Britain's defense intelligence claimed Russian casualties have spiked by 90% since it began the offensive. ABC cannot independently verify those numbers, but numerous videos of the Russian attacks around Avdiivka released by Ukrainian units suggest Russia is taking losses on a scale not since last winter.
This means that Russia is paying a high price to try to change the situation in the region that looks like that on the map:
Avdiivka is in the middle of this terrain, but keep in mind that the scale of this map shows a distance of 16 kilometers. The fields marked on this map in blue are Ukrainian territorial gains - mainly on the southern borders of this area, Russian counter-offensives marked yellow mainly in the northern areas can be counted in hundreds of meters up to kilometers maximum. That gives us the perspective of what kind of activities we are talking about in this place… That’s the way Avdiivka itself looks like now
To understand the broader context we have to zoom out this map and see the regions we are talking about. See the whole perspective of the thousand kilometers frontline where the war itself is concentrated right now. Take a look at this.
The two regions marked with black lines are territories that Russia already controlled before February 24, 2022. Those are the results of the first phase of the war back in 2014, a thing that we can call from the perspective of the first partition of Ukraine. The Russian gains and regions that Russia controls now are basically the land bridges connecting the Donetsk region of Crimea and the landmass over the Azov Sea and Dnipro River in the Zaporizhia region and then all the way to the Russian border cutting through the southern and northern borders of the Donetsk District. Those terrains mark the chessboard of this conflict. All of the groundwork of both sides are located on this contact line. In that scale and keep in mind that this frontline is a thousand kilometers long the battlefields of those campaigns are hardly visible. At least for now.
The bottom line is that the frontline reality of this war does not change for months. The Ukrainian counteroffensive that was supposed to take back Crimea did not succeed, at least for now and the territorial are marginal as the Institute for Study of War calls it in its latest frontline report:
Ukrainian forces marginally advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast and continued offensive operations near Bakhmut on October 25. Geolocated footage published on October 24 indicates that Ukrainian forces made further marginal advances west of Robotyne. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces also achieved unspecified partial success west of Verbove (9km west of Robotyne). Ukrainian Ground Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fityo stated on October 24 that Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut).
The Atlantic Council, a US-based think tank close to the decision-makers in the US, assesses the military situation in Ukraine in the following manner.
Following months of mostly defensive warfare, Russian forces recently resumed large-scale offensive operations in eastern Ukraine. However, after more than two weeks of intense fighting around the heavily fortified Ukrainian-held town of Avdiivka, Putin’s army has achieved only limited advances while suffering very significant losses in both men and equipment. This stuttering campaign is sparking renewed questions over the offensive capabilities of the Russian military in Ukraine, but it is also underlining the Kremlin’s continued determination to secure victory at all costs.
Russia’s Avdiivka offensive is a major operation that reflects Moscow’s desire to regain the initiative as the war with Ukraine passes the 20-month mark. UK officials stated on October 17 that the attack was likely “the most significant offensive operation undertaken by Russia since at least January 2023.” Russia’s goal appears to be the encirclement of the town. This could set the stage for the wider objective of establishing control over the whole of Donetsk Oblast, one of five Ukrainian provinces Moscow claims to have “annexed.”
It does not look like in the views of the authors either side is capable of striking a major punch against the opposition. Ukraine may not be able to regain Crimea right now, but surely Russia is not capable of doing anything else than just burning through its own resources and sending its people to the meat grinder.
However Ukrainian President Zelenski said that Ukraine is preparing for the Russian fall-winter strike:
It is highly likely that the target for these drones was the Khmelnytsky nuclear power plant – the shockwave from the explosion shattered windows, including those on the territory of the NPP. (...) This strike towards the NPP is another reminder to all our partners of how important it is to strengthen Ukraine's air defense and how dangerous it can be when Russia can bypass international sanctions. (...) After our troops struck the airfields in Berdiansk and Luhansk, we see that the occupiers are relocating their aviation further. Specifically, they are attempting to redeploy it from the territory of our Crimea. This is a good sign. First, the Russian fleet flees, and now Russian aviation is fleeing. The habit of running will be very useful for Russia. Because they will have to flee all our land. Without exceptions.)
The Geopolitical context of what is going on is of course related to the recent Putler’s meetings with Xi Jinping and Fat Boy Kim. British military intelligence update reckons that Northern Korean weapon supplies are already on the frontline:
it is almost certain that North Korean munitions have now reached ammunition depots in western Russia. These depots support Russian military operations in Ukraine. If North Korea sustains the recent scale and pace of military-related shipments (more than 1,000 containers over the last several weeks), it will be on course to become one of Russia’s most significant foreign arms suppliers, alongside Iran and Belarus. It is currently unclear what Russia has agreed to provide North Korea in return. It is unlikely the full package has been finalised; it was highly likely one of the primary discussion topics during recent senior level Russian visits to North Korea. It will likely include a mixture of financial compensation, other economic support, the provision of military technology, and cooperation on other high technology areas, such as space.
Which of course boils down to Ruzzkies supporting Fat Boy Rocket Man in his effort to get the ICBMs with nukes operational and effective so that he can use them as leverage against its neighbors - US-backed South Korea, and as we already discussed the issue to further challenge the US dominance in the region.
Speaking of the US, the House Speaker drama is over. Mike Johnson was elected for the position and we will ask our guest and friend Steven Moore who spent over 20 years of his professional career on the Hill how it will affect the US approach towards the Russian aggression against Ukraine.