Russia in 2023 Norwegian Intelligence Service Annual Report

"The invasion has exposed fundamental weaknesses in Russia’s war machinery."

Drawing from the Norwegian Intelligence Service's annual report, the section titled "A Strategic Mistake" presents an in-depth analysis of Russia's military developments amid its engagement in Ukraine. This summary focuses on specific military developments as per the Norwegian intelligence insights:

Depletion of Conventional Forces and Reliance on Nuclear Arsenal

Conventional Forces Diminished: The war in Ukraine has significantly drained Russia's conventional military capabilities. A substantial portion of Russia's modern surface-to-surface missiles has been consumed, with three-fourths of these assets utilized in the conflict. Russia retains large reserves of older military materiel, which will be deployed, but preparation and operationalization will span several months.

Nuclear and Strategic Forces Unchanged: Despite the attrition of conventional forces, Russia's nuclear capabilities remain intact, as do its air and naval forces. The strategic importance of nuclear weapons has escalated, with the Russian Strategic and Regional Deterrence Forces gaining prominence within the military hierarchy. The Northern Fleet's strategic submarines continue to be a pivotal element of Russia's nuclear strategy, with no alterations observed in the armament of Russian surface combatants in the Northern Fleet.

Increased Defence Spending and Economic Implications

The defence budget is set to surge by 34% in 2023, placing additional strain on the Russian economy. The defence and justice sectors now account for about one-third of the state budget, reflecting the escalated financial commitment to military and security concerns.

Elevated Role of Tactical Nuclear and Advanced Weapons

Tactical Nuclear Threat: Tactical nuclear weapons emerge as a critical threat in various operational scenarios potentially involving NATO countries. Russia's arsenal also includes subsea capabilities, anti-satellite weapons, and cyber means, all of which pose potential threats to Norway and NATO members.

Strategic Deterrence and Defence Priorities: With the enhanced role of nuclear and strategic forces, the defence of military bases on the Kola Peninsula, the Northern bastion, and the Barents Sea has become increasingly significant. This shift underscores the strategic importance of the Northern Fleet in Russia's defense posture against perceived Western threats.

Risk of Escalation and Misunderstandings

The report indicates a growing risk of misunderstandings and unintended incidents between Russia and NATO, attributed to deep-seated mistrust towards Western intentions. This mistrust has been magnified by Western responses to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, potentially leading to heightened tensions and the risk of escalation in the region.

The Norwegian Intelligence Service's assessment outlines a critical view of Russia's military developments, emphasizing the shift towards nuclear and strategic deterrence amidst a backdrop of weakened conventional forces and increased economic pressures due to defense spending.

Russian Intelligence Capabilities

Russian intelligence services, encompassing both civilian and military branches, are actively engaged in operations concerning Norway, showcasing adaptability and significant resource allocation. These services conduct comprehensive intelligence gathering across multiple domains, including digital, spatial, aerial, and maritime. Notably, civilian ships, under the guise of legitimate activities, are utilized for intelligence operations due to their unique access to areas proximate to Norway. This dual use of civilian vessels complicates the detection of covert intelligence activities. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, several deep-cover spies, or "illegals," have been exposed across Europe, indicating a broad and deep-rooted intelligence network. Russian intelligence priorities include Norwegian defense policies, military readiness, Arctic interests, and energy sector insights​​.

Underwater Activities of Russia

Russia's underwater activities, particularly the development of sophisticated weapons systems, are a focal point of its military strategy. The autonomous torpedo system Poseidon and the cruise missile Skyfall are among the advanced weaponry being prioritized. Poseidon, with nuclear propulsion and the capability to be armed with a nuclear warhead, alongside Skyfall, designed for extended range and improved missile defense penetration, underscore Russia's commitment to enhancing its underwater and long-range strike capabilities. These systems, currently under development, reflect Russia's emphasis on nuclear-powered weapons with the potential for significant strategic impact. Testing of these weapons in the Arctic Ocean and from Novaya Zemlya indicates ongoing efforts to operationalize these technologies. Additionally, Russia aims to expand its arsenal with new technologies across various platforms, including autonomous unmanned systems and advanced electronic and cyber warfare capabilities, relying on non-Western sources, primarily China, to circumvent Western sanctions​​.