Trump’s Second Term: How Will NATO’s Eastern Flank Fare?

As Donald Trump is sworn in again, the US, NATO, and the world face recession fears, rising conflicts, and a push for stronger defense.

Tomorrow, Monday, January 20, 2025, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States of America. He begins his second term at a moment that is, to put it mildly, extraordinarily complicated. There is a real threat of a global recession—just as economists at JP Morgan predicted in mid-2024: “There is now a 35% chance that the global economy will enter a recession by the end of 2024, and a 45% chance that it will do so by the end of 2025.” Meanwhile, the challenge to American hegemony from China continues to grow economically, politically, and militarily. Some analysts are already predicting that China will “annex” (attack) Taiwan during Trump’s new term. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, fueled by the neo-imperialist plans of notorious war criminal Vladolf Putler, is ongoing, with ambitions stretching decades into the future. In the Middle East, almost every country (Jordan being the lone exception) is currently involved in some form of military conflict, with the war in Israel being particularly concerning from the US perspective. These tensions are linked to the regional ambitions of Iran. Additionally, there is a serious issue along the southern US border, where Mexican gangs smuggle large numbers of illegal migrants and dangerous narcotics like fentanyl.

All these factors underscore that President Trump’s second term starts under remarkably difficult conditions. In addition to urgent reforms within the United States, international security will be a top priority. Without ensuring security on the global stage—and thus protecting US interests abroad—Trump will face major obstacles in getting the American economy back on track.

AI-generated image of 47th US President Donald Trump pondering the future of the NATO alliance