Vodka Guided Ballistic Missiles Fail to Hit Kyiv as the West Cooks Up a Peace Deal Rejected by Ukrainians

Last night, Ukraine was once again targeted by a Russian drone swarm. The swarm, primarily composed of Iranian-made jet-propelled Shahid drones, was similar to those showcased on Chuck Pfarrer's Twitter feed. The attack was not particularly successful, as the Ukrainian air defense and electronic war forces, as Chuck Pfarrer reports…

destroyed all 18 drones, resulting in a 100% interception rate by the Ukrainian side. The ballistic missile attack, however, was slightly more successful. According to Reuters:

"Russia attacked the Ukrainian capital with eight long-range ballistic missiles before dawn on Monday, and four people were wounded by debris after air defenses shot down the incoming salvo, officials said."

This marked the first attack of its kind in some time, yet not quite a success despite months of preparation. It's been jokingly referred to as VGBM - Vodka Guided Ballistic Missile by our sources. This news arrived just as the British Military Intelligence released their latest situation report. It notes that about 40% of all Russian frontline activities along the two-thousand-mile-long contact line are concentrated around Avdiivka, suggesting a potential new Russian offensive against Ukraine:

"Over the last week, the Donetsk Oblast town of Avdiivka has continued to be the scene of the most intense combat on the front. As reflected in official Ukrainian public-release data, on some days approaching 40 per cent of all combat engagements have likely taken place in this small sector."

The Institute for the Study of War describes the situation, noting Russian advancements and Ukrainian counterattacks:

"Recent Ukrainian military official statements further suggest that Russian forces have succeeded in seizing the initiative along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border, near Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City axis, while Ukrainian forces maintain the initiative in key areas of southern Ukraine."

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in the Americas, having been invited by Argentina's new president, Javier Milei. Notably, Zelensky briefly spoke with Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban:

"On the sidelines of the inauguration, I spoke with Hungarian Prime Minister Orban. It was a highly straightforward conversation, focused on our European affairs."

No further details of this conversation were revealed. However, news soon emerged that the Foreign Ministers of Ukraine and Hungary are set to meet:

"Today, I will meet Hungary's foreign minister. This will be our first face-to-face meeting since the beginning of the full-scale invasion," Kuleba said.

In addition, President Zelensky is scheduled to meet U.S. President Joe Biden soon:

"President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine will travel to Washington on Tuesday for a last-ditch lobbying effort with President Biden and members of Congress aimed at securing billions of dollars of U.S. aid," according to the White House Press Secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre.

Amidst these developments, there's a growing sense that a political solution is being sought, although it seems unlikely to be palatable. The German proposal, reported by BILD, for freezing the conflict is on the table, but the challenge lies in convincing not just the Ukrainian president but also the Ukrainian people, who are unwilling to concede their lands. Meanwhile, Russia's foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova reiterates Russia's unyielding stance:

"Russia's maximalist objectives in Ukraine have not changed," Zakharova asserts, demanding full Ukrainian political capitulation.

The Institute for the Study of War also points out that Russia plans to run a presidential election in the occupied regions of Crimea, a move that further complicates the situation:

"Voting for the Russian presidential election will be held in four Ukrainian regions the Kremlin claimed to have annexed last year," Moscow announced. [S11]

Europe, in its efforts to end the war, is engaging with China's Xi Jinping, as reported by STRATFOR:

"The summit ended without a substantial shift in positions from either side, highlighting fundamental bilateral divisions between China and the European Union in areas from trade to the Russia-Ukraine war."

These developments underline the complexities of the current geopolitical landscape, where dialogue and cooperation with authoritarian regimes raise questions about the lessons learned from past mistakes.