War That We Can Lose - Former US Top Diplomat Rings the Bell

Wes Mitchell, Former Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia, Breaks Down the Nature of Challenge That the West Is Facing

As the wanted war criminal Vladolf Putler boards his airplane and is assisted by fighter jets on his travel to the Middle East, the geopolitical landscape continues to shift dramatically.

The Putin-Bin Salman Talks

"Putin and Saudi prince Mohamed Bin Salman, who together control a big part of the world's oil, have often been close, even when the West didn't support them and they were ostracised by the West. In 2018, just two months after the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, they were seen high-fiving and smiling at a G20 summit."

This statement from Reuters underscores the significant and ongoing talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Prince Mohamed Bin Salman, particularly in the context of global oil control.

Regional Conflicts and Diplomacy

Putin / Saudi Arabia Regional Conflicts and Diplomacy: “Mohamed Bin Salman has sought to reassert Saudi Arabia as a regional power with less deference to the United States, which supplies Riyadh with most of its weapons and is the world's top producer of oil. Putin, who sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022, says Russia is engaged in an existential battle with the West - and has courted allies across the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Asia amid Western attempts to isolate Moscow."

Geopolitical Positioning Amidst Western Sanctions

Geopolitical Positioning Amidst Western Sanctions: "Apart from cooperation in OPEC+, Putin is keen to cultivate the Gulf states as part of his drive to build global alliances with non-Western countries in order to demonstrate what he says is the failure of the United States and its allies to isolate Russia with sanctions over the war in Ukraine."

The U.S. Military's Challenge

Wes Mitchell, former assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia in his analysis published in Foreign Policy, points out the condition of the U.S. military in facing multiple adversaries:

“Today’s U.S. military is not designed to fight wars against two major rivals simultaneously. In the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, the United States would be hard-pressed to rebuff the attack while keeping up the flow of support to Ukraine and Israel."

The Changing Nature of Global Warfare

Mitchell emphasizes the shift in the global military balance:

"The United States has fought multifront wars before. But in past conflicts, it was always able to outproduce its opponents. That’s no longer the case: China’s navy is already bigger than the United States’ in terms of sheer number of ships, and it’s growing by the equivalent of the entire French Navy every four years."

The Energy Dilemma

Mitchell also addresses the critical issue of energy and its implications:

"Across the West, governments and citizens will have to reevaluate priorities that put their countries at a disadvantage in the coming struggle. It makes no sense for Americans to tie themselves to hasty and exceedingly expensive climate policies that sap economic growth at a moment when China is building coal-fired power plants at the rate of two per week."

Recent Drone Attacks and Global Security

The significance of recent drone attacks on U.S. vessels is highlighted:

“This past weekend saw four attacks against three separate commercial vessels operating in international waters in the Southern Red Sea — three vessels that are connected to 14 different nations, which goes to show you the extent to which this is truly a source of global concern and a threat to international peace and stability."

Saudi Arabia's Role in Regional Stability

Saudi Arabia's position in the context of these attacks is also significant and puzzling in a way. After all its the same Saudi Arabia that meets Putler as if he didn’t build his policies on waging the war against the West which basically means… against the USA:

Saudi Arabia's Request to the U.S.: “Saudi Arabia has asked the United States to show restraint in responding to attacks by Yemen's Houthis against ships in the Red Sea, as Riyadh seeks to contain spillover from the Hamas-Israel war.”

Economic Implications and the Role of China

The economic aspects of these geopolitical maneuvers are not to be overlooked:

"Two U.S. rivals—Russia and Iran—are major oil producers. One recent report found that a prolonged closure of the Hormuz Strait amid a broader Middle Eastern conflict could push oil prices beyond $100 per barrel, substantially increasing inflationary pressures. China is a major holder of U.S. debt, and a sustained sell-off by Beijing could drive up yields in U.S. bonds and place further strains on the economy."

Securing Allies' Defense Capabilities

Mitchell points out the necessity of bolstering the defense capabilities of U.S. allies:

"The immediate priority for the United States has to be to ensure that Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan have the weapons they need to defend themselves."

U.S. Defense Policies and Military Deterrence

The importance of revamping U.S. defense policies is underscored:

"That won’t be possible unless the United States gets its defense-industrial base in order. Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, total U.S. defense production has increased by a mere 10 percent."

According to Mitchell, maintaining US military deterrence is crucial, but…  

That won’t be possible unless the United States gets its defense-industrial base in order. Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, total U.S. defense production has increased by a mere 10 percent—even as the war demonstrates the staggeringly high consumption of military ammunition in a major conflict between industrial powers compared to the limited counterinsurgency operations of the recent past.)

Former top US diplomat claims that in a way the US should answer to the Russian military posture with one of its own. Russia switched its “economy” to the military tracks. The US should in a way do the same. The gravity of the situation could compel Washington to leverage the Defense Production Act, transitioning certain civilian sectors towards military production. In this scenario, the U.S. government might have to adopt stringent measures. These could include diverting resources originally destined for consumer markets, augmenting manufacturing capacities, and amending environmental laws that currently hinder the production of military supplies, all in an effort to prime the U.S. industrial landscape for full-scale mobilisation.